The May 2019 Primary is less than three months away. One of the most interesting races ITC hears about is the Democratic primary for Governor. Attorney General Andy Beshear, former State Auditor Adam Edelen, and longtime legislator Rocky Adkins are locked in a three way battle. The Beshear campaign went to great lengths last week to distribute the results of recent polling which show Beshear at 55% of likely Democratic voters, Adkins at 17%, and Edelen at 7%.
ITC is not surprised by the Edelen numbers. Edelen, who interestingly served as Chief of Staff to former Governor Steve Beshear (Andy’s father), lost in 2015 for re-election to State Auditor by an underfunded, less known, and arguably, less qualified Republican named Mike Harmon. Edelen not only lost, he got humiliated by Harmon. ITC is not aware of much Edelen has done since then to reverse the obvious negativity from Democratic voters.
What was surprising to ITC was the margin between Beshear and Adkins, if the polling is correct.
After the polling was released, ITC talked with some Democratic legislators in the General Assembly. ITC was surprised to hear so many of them express support for Beshear. In fact, we were told that several Democratic House members are not supporting Adkins. They tend to think, or at least indicated, that Beshear is the best chance to beat Matt Bevin in November. ITC does not see any sign at this time which would lead one to believe there is any way Robert Goforth can mount a serious challenge to Bevin in the May Republican primary, although we do believe Goforth gets at least 35% to 40% of the Republican primary vote, just from those who are anti-Bevin.
ITC believes Adkins is the best chance for Democrats to win in November. He is from rural Kentucky, will resonate well with the middle class, is a life long Kentuckian with deep family roots and ties across the state from his more than 30 years in the legislature. All of these qualities contrast him from Bevin and would, in our opinion, make Adkins a serious challenger to Bevin, more so than Beshear who is viewed by many as “the boy born with a golden spoon.” That label or identity is never good in politics, just ask Jack Conway. But if Adkins is going to mount to a serious challenge to Beshear in the Democratic primary, he needs to first convince his colleagues in the General Assembly he can win, and that he is the better choice to face Bevin in November. Based on what we have heard recently, hat may be very difficult to do at this point.
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